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Sunday 3 February 2013

Kathleen Wynne - The Over- Education Premier?

Last time, we took a look at a rough outline of how the "SuperZips" measure invented by Charles Murray might play out in Ontario at the riding level. Let's go a step further today, by breaking down the "SuperRiding" score by standardized education level and income level. 

So Many Books, So Few Dollars

Yesterday, I noticed that my own riding, Parkdale–High Park was above the 75th percentile in SuperRiding scores. But when it came to the cold, hard cash element, P-HP was behind.

Then there was Mitt Romney's line from the debates last year; how young people "... can't find a job commensurate with their education." If 20-somethings here are over-educated for today's economy, how are the other Ontario ridings faring?

Hon. Kathleen Wynne, Minister of Transportation
Alms for those with advanced degrees?
Below, we've posted a breakdown of the figures that led to my SuperRidings score from yesterday. We've also added a new column, the Over-Educated Score, and then weighted it by the figure for Median Family Income. A positive number suggests income lagging behind education. A negative number suggests the opposite — perhaps large numbers of baby boomers who got their diploma stamped by the mill in the 1970s, and were rewarded by an easy labour market?

Data is for the Rest of Ontario only (No Northern Ridings).

Edit: A new method was used to compute these scores. It consisted of first finding the percent score within a given riding (e.g. converting a score of 50,000 people within a riding twice that size to 50% of a riding). Then computing a standard score, based on the percent scores. Then weighting the standard scores by the population of the riding, by dividing the standard scores by the following: (Population of the riding / Average population of ridings).

Figures are based on the 2006 census, and are given for the Rest of Ontario only (i.e. Not the 11 Northern Ridings). The original figures given are found below.  

Find your Electoral District at Elections Ontario.

RidingWeighted Standardized Score:
Education 15 and over: Degree at bachelor's level or above
Weighted Standardized score: Median after-tax income in 2005 - All census families Over-Educated Score 
(Income Score minus Education Score)
Percentile Rank2011 Party Winner
Toronto Centre2.20-0.512.71100%OLP
Trinity-Spadina2.37-0.292.6799%NDP
Don Valley East1.39-1.152.5498%OLP
Scarborough-Agincourt0.51-1.712.2297%OLP
Parkdale-High Park2.03-0.182.2196%NDP
Willowdale1.99-0.092.0895%OLP
York Centre0.47-1.371.8594%OLP
Toronto-Danforth0.97-0.741.7193%NDP
Don Valley West2.270.621.6592%OLP
Ottawa Centre2.570.961.6191%OLP
Scarborough Southwest-0.09-1.581.5089%OLP
Scarborough Centre-0.17-1.621.4688%OLP
York West-0.92-2.371.4587%OLP
Ottawa-Vanier1.23-0.191.4286%OLP
St Paul's2.651.251.4085%OLP
Mississauga East-Cooksville0.47-0.931.4084%OLP
Scarborough-Guildwood-0.27-1.641.3783%OLP
Etobicoke North-0.36-1.661.3082%OLP
Beaches-East York1.03-0.261.2981%NDP
Davenport-0.31-1.561.2680%NDP
Scarborough-Rouge River-0.06-1.301.2479%OLP
Hamilton Centre-0.47-1.681.2078%NDP
Ottawa West-Nepean0.84-0.241.0877%OLP
York South-Weston-0.91-1.870.9676%OLP
Eglinton-Lawrence1.901.010.9075%OLP
Ottawa South0.950.190.7674%OLP
Etobicoke-Lakeshore0.900.190.7073%OLP
London North Centre0.45-0.190.6372%OLP
Richmond Hill1.220.660.5671%OLP
Windsor West-0.07-0.580.5169%OLP
Markham-Unionville0.44-0.050.4968%OLP
Kingston and the Islands0.30-0.170.4767%OLP
Etobicoke Centre0.740.300.4466%OLP
Mississauga-Brampton South0.550.140.4165%OLP
Bramalea-Gore-Malton-0.32-0.660.3464%NDP
Thornhill1.361.100.2663%PC
London West0.420.180.2462%OLP
Prince Edward-Hastings-1.00-1.200.2061%PC
St. Catharines-0.61-0.730.1260%OLP
Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound-1.19-1.240.0559%PC
Peterborough-0.68-0.720.0458%OLP
Guelph0.350.39-0.0457%OLP
Mississauga-Erindale0.690.75-0.0756%OLP
Kitchener-Waterloo0.750.85-0.0955%PC
Niagara Falls-0.80-0.70-0.1054%OLP
Simcoe North-0.90-0.73-0.1753%PC
Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry-1.33-1.16-0.1752%PC
Brampton West-0.28-0.07-0.2151%OLP
Kitchener Centre-0.55-0.32-0.2349%OLP
Brampton-Springdale-0.31-0.08-0.2348%OLP
Mississauga South0.580.83-0.2547%OLP
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek-1.15-0.88-0.2846%NDP
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke-1.23-0.92-0.3145%PC
Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock-1.12-0.79-0.3344%PC
Mississauga-Streetsville0.550.89-0.3443%OLP
Windsor-Tecumseh-0.42-0.07-0.3542%OLP
Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington-0.92-0.57-0.3541%PC
Leeds-Grenville-1.03-0.64-0.3940%PC
Welland-0.99-0.58-0.4139%NDP
London-Fanshawe-1.22-0.81-0.4138%NDP
Northumberland-Quinte West-1.03-0.62-0.4137%PC
Oak Ridges-Markham0.550.98-0.4436%OLP
Chatham-Kent-Essex-1.24-0.61-0.6335%PC
Brant-0.91-0.28-0.6334%OLP
Hamilton Mountain-0.96-0.29-0.6733%NDP
Barrie-0.710.05-0.7532%PC
Burlington0.040.80-0.7731%PC
Nepean-Carleton0.851.67-0.8129%PC
Haldimand-Norfolk-1.37-0.52-0.8528%PC
Huron-Bruce-1.25-0.38-0.8627%PC
Simcoe-Grey-0.760.12-0.8826%PC
Oshawa-1.17-0.24-0.9325%PC
Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale0.691.63-0.9424%OLP
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex-1.28-0.31-0.9723%PC
Cambridge-0.770.21-0.9822%PC
Carleton-Mississippi Mills1.012.01-1.0021%PC
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell-0.960.05-1.0220%OLP
Kitchener-Conestoga-0.620.40-1.0219%PC
Halton0.691.72-1.0318%PC
Elgin-Middlesex-London-1.17-0.09-1.0817%PC
Perth-Wellington-1.30-0.22-1.0816%PC
Vaughan-0.210.90-1.1215%OLP
Oxford-1.35-0.19-1.1614%PC
Sarnia-Lambton-1.050.12-1.1713%PC
Pickering-Scarborough East0.051.39-1.3412%OLP
Ajax-Pickering-0.311.09-1.4011%OLP
Newmarket-Aurora0.261.68-1.429%PC
York-Simcoe-1.000.45-1.458%PC
Oakville1.022.50-1.487%OLP
Whitby-Oshawa-0.251.27-1.516%PC
Ottawa-Orléans0.742.26-1.525%OLP
Niagara West-Glanbrook-0.670.88-1.554%PC
Dufferin-Caledon-0.681.03-1.713%PC
Essex-0.621.12-1.742%NDP
Durham-0.801.01-1.811%PC
Wellington-Halton Hills-0.381.55-1.930%PC

There's the real reason middle Ontario should be wary of multi-graduate, premier-designate Kathleen Wynne: she represents one of the most over-educated ridings in Ontario (Don Valley West). </joke>.

Meanwhile, outgoing Premier Dalton McGuinty's riding, Ottawa South, barely misses the top 25% over-educated ridings.


Certain social critics might also take perverse pleasure in noting that Trinity-Spadina (Toronto's Annex, Trinity Bellwoods Park, Ossington Avenue, etc) is number 2

Ph.D. in Horribleness
In Rob Ford's imagination, there are probably
more than a few of these in Trinity-Spadina
Under a stricter set of criteria, that is, searching for truly "over-educated" ridings consisting of lots of educated people making very little money (standard scores over zero for education, and less than zero for income), come out with this exclusive list : Toronto Centre, Trinity-Spadina, Don Valley East, Scarborough-Agincourt, Parkdale-High Park, Willowdale, York Centre, Toronto-Danforth, Ottawa-Vanier, Mississauga East-Cooksville, Beaches-East York, Ottawa West-Nepean, London North Centre, Markham-Unionville, followed by Kingston and the Islands.



Since the figures are from 2006, maybe the trends would be even more extreme if we had reliable 2011 census numbers.

Brains, Paupers, and the Party Vote

The NDP seems disproportionately represented at the top of the pile here, though they are sprinkled throughout the list, winning ridings all the way down to "under-educated" Essex.

Conversely, the PCs show up pretty often at the bottom, while maxing out at Thornhill, a third of the way down from the top. Is there something going on here?

We decided to check, so we assigned codes to the 2011 Ontario Election winners and looked for any correlations between Party Winner and all our various measures:

Correlationsr
Education and Party Winner-0.30 *** ( p = 0.003 )
Income and Party Winner-0.08
Over-Educated Score and Party Winner-0.21 ** (p = 0.04)

The strongest correlation we found was not with any of the fanciful scores invented here, but actually just plain old education. The next-highest? The over-educated score.

Something interesting for the parties to keep in mind: 2006 family median income apparently had no significant correlation to 2011 party vote at all.

Of course, we would have to reword that for the statisticians: the null hypothesis, where income has no relationship to party vote, cannot be rejected.

But this goes to show you why you should check your figures with some kind of statistical test before jumping to too-hasty a conclusion.


A Nice Note

We have to point out, of course, that "Educated" (% BAs) isn't conterminous with training or seriousness (sorry to burst your bubble, Trinity Bellwoods Park hipsters).

One likely source of income disproportionate to the number of BAs found in a riding are the skilled trades.

Case in point: the roommate at our house who brings home all the money is in wood-working. 

Original tables:

Here is the old data from 3 Feb 2013, using a slightly less sophisticated (we think now) method:

Education Score (after Murray) Rest of Ontario onlyStd % Education ScoreStd Median Income ScoreSuper-Riding ScoreSuper-Riding
Score (weighted)
Over-
Educated Score
Over-
Educated Score (Weighted)
2011 Winner
Willowdale2.28-0.12-2.14-1.922.402.35OLP
Trinity-Spadina2.12-0.32-1.56-1.732.432.30NDP
Toronto Centre1.87-0.53-1.87-1.702.402.18OLP
Don Valley East1.39-1.101.722.092.492.01OLP
Don Valley West2.270.621.891.971.651.83OLP
Parkdale-High Park1.67-0.17-1.33-1.171.841.79NDP
Scarborough-Agincourt0.56-1.66-1.52-1.402.221.57OLP
Ottawa Centre2.220.92-0.86-0.771.301.51OLP
York Centre0.62-1.33-2.09-2.001.951.50OLP
St. Paul's2.331.19-1.69-1.571.131.37OLP
Toronto-Danforth0.87-0.66-1.60-1.721.531.36NDP
Mississauga East-Cooksville0.55-1.000.200.191.551.28OLP
Eglinton-Lawrence1.910.851.481.631.061.22OLP
Beaches-East York0.91-0.253.523.321.161.11NDP
Ottawa-Vanier0.99-0.12-1.18-1.101.111.09OLP
Scarborough Centre-0.05-1.47-1.37-1.361.421.05OLP
Ottawa West-Nepean0.89-0.18-0.55-0.791.071.04OLP
Scarborough-Rouge River-0.08-1.48-1.60-1.421.401.04OLP
Scarborough Southwest-0.02-1.35-1.50-1.371.331.02OLP
Scarborough-Guildwood-0.19-1.51-1.48-1.421.310.97OLP
Etobicoke North-0.30-1.611.331.251.320.94OLP
Davenport-0.22-1.392.032.101.170.89NDP
Ottawa South0.980.14-0.73-0.770.840.86OLP
Hamilton Centre-0.45-1.630.970.971.180.84NDP
York West-0.76-2.05-2.81-2.481.290.83OLP
Richmond Hill1.300.59-1.24-1.290.710.79OLP
Etobicoke-Lakeshore0.920.171.231.160.750.77OLP
Etobicoke Centre0.940.291.511.310.640.68OLP
York South-Weston-0.83-1.80-2.09-2.080.970.66OLP
Markham-Unionville0.45-0.220.190.190.670.64OLP
London North Centre0.46-0.180.290.270.640.62OLP
Thornhill1.601.12-1.67-1.690.480.57PC
Mississauga-Brampton South0.620.05-0.21-0.200.570.57OLP
Windsor West-0.05-0.60-1.96-1.940.560.50OLP
Bramalea-Gore-Malton-0.42-0.932.773.130.500.42NDP
Kingston and the Islands0.24-0.170.720.700.410.40OLP
London West0.480.180.230.240.300.31OLP
St. Catharines-0.55-0.69-1.69-1.550.140.13OLP
Prince Edward-Hastings-1.00-1.09-1.45-1.280.090.08PC
Mississauga-Erindale0.890.83-0.48-0.480.060.07OLP
Peterborough-0.63-0.67-1.24-1.190.050.04OLP
Kitchener-Waterloo0.870.890.660.59-0.02-0.03PC
Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound-1.09-1.052.892.87-0.04-0.03PC
Guelph0.340.381.121.12-0.05-0.05OLP
Niagara Falls-0.87-0.73-0.58-0.64-0.15-0.13OLP
Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry-1.17-0.97-1.70-1.57-0.19-0.16PC
Kitchener Centre-0.46-0.290.710.66-0.17-0.16OLP
Mississauga South0.570.760.070.07-0.19-0.21OLP
Simcoe North-0.97-0.71-1.48-1.47-0.26-0.23PC
Brampton-Springdale-0.38-0.142.723.04-0.24-0.23OLP
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek-1.12-0.840.670.78-0.28-0.24NDP
Brampton West-0.43-0.122.143.07-0.30-0.30OLP
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke-1.09-0.72-1.30-1.29-0.37-0.33PC
Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock-1.15-0.770.811.06-0.38-0.33PC
London-Fanshawe-1.13-0.750.220.19-0.38-0.33NDP
Mississauga-Streetsville0.590.89-0.45-0.48-0.29-0.34OLP
Windsor-Tecumseh-0.43-0.05-1.92-1.94-0.38-0.37OLP
Welland-0.95-0.53-1.91-1.76-0.42-0.38NDP
Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington-0.99-0.490.320.30-0.50-0.45PC
Leeds-Grenville-0.97-0.460.290.28-0.51-0.47PC
Northumberland-Quinte West-1.12-0.59-0.74-0.68-0.53-0.48PC
Chatham-Kent-Essex-1.14-0.552.272.15-0.60-0.54PC
Hamilton Mountain-0.96-0.280.750.75-0.67-0.64NDP
Brant-0.98-0.273.142.91-0.70-0.67OLP
Haldimand-Norfolk-1.25-0.441.091.06-0.81-0.75PC
Huron-Bruce-1.13-0.320.870.75-0.82-0.77PC
Oak Ridges-Markham0.761.38-0.72-0.69-0.63-0.78OLP
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex-1.18-0.320.510.54-0.86-0.81PC
Barrie-0.770.113.543.42-0.88-0.89PC
Burlington0.090.882.822.63-0.79-0.91PC
Perth-Wellington-1.14-0.19-1.37-1.18-0.95-0.92PC
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell-0.890.071.241.12-0.96-0.97OLP
Oshawa-1.19-0.18-0.83-0.73-1.01-0.98PC
Elgin-Middlesex-London-1.10-0.081.241.43-1.02-1.01PC
Oxford-1.18-0.14-1.32-1.15-1.05-1.02PC
Kitchener-Conestoga-0.590.380.660.66-0.97-1.04PC
Simcoe-Grey-0.870.14-1.81-1.52-1.01-1.04PC
Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale0.711.563.283.58-0.85-1.08OLP
Sarnia-Lambton-0.970.11-1.25-1.33-1.07-1.09PC
Cambridge-0.830.252.762.58-1.09-1.13PC
Nepean-Carleton0.861.91-0.52-0.53-1.04-1.39PC
Pickering-Scarborough East0.041.20-1.42-1.20-1.16-1.41OLP
Vaughan-0.261.07-1.35-1.75-1.34-1.59OLP
Ajax-Pickering-0.301.053.033.90-1.35-1.59OLP
Carleton-Mississippi Mills1.042.232.162.37-1.19-1.66PC
Niagara West-Glanbrook-0.630.83-0.65-0.67-1.47-1.68PC
York-Simcoe-1.030.51-2.63-2.56-1.55-1.69PC
Newmarket-Aurora0.291.73-0.52-0.59-1.44-1.88PC
Oakville1.102.45-0.66-0.72-1.35-1.93OLP
Dufferin-Caledon-0.670.991.771.90-1.66-1.95PC
Halton0.792.231.081.02-1.44-2.00PC
Ottawa-Orléans0.682.14-1.10-1.05-1.47-2.01OLP
Essex-0.651.171.341.38-1.82-2.19NDP
Whitby-Oshawa-0.261.49-2.14-1.81-1.75-2.21PC
Durham-0.841.031.801.76-1.87-2.21PC
Wellington-Halton Hills-0.381.46-1.72-1.80-1.84-2.32PC
Correlations with Party winner, 2011rr2
Correl 1 (Over-educated score, weighted)-0.220.05
Correl 2 (Over-educated score, unweighted)-0.240.06
Correl 3 (SuperRiding score weighted)0.140.02
Correl 4 (SuperRiding score, unweighted)0.150.02
Correl 5 (Income)-0.060.00
Correl 6 (Education)-0.330.11

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